From the wave-0 evidence ledger
Recorded claims
Each claim states what the inspected source says, at the recorded location—bounded by its scope and graded by its confidence. Nothing here is a synthesis across works.
In the November 2025-January 2026 Business Trends and Outlook Survey, 17.9% of firms reported current AI use, rising to 31.2% when weighted by employment; 57% of adopting firms used AI in no more than three business functions.
Scope: US employer firms in the specified BTOS waves; current use under the survey definition.
Among all AI-using firms, about 44% reported task augmentation. Conditional on the subset reporting at least one surveyed task effect, 66% reported augmentation alone. About 2% of all AI-using firms reported employment decreases. Greater functional and integration breadth and firm-performance measures were associated, while some operational investment and deployment measures were associated with employment declines; these cross-sectional relationships are associative, not causal.
Scope: Near-term US firm reports; no causal attribution and no long-run displacement inference.
Boundaries
Limitations & independence
Recorded at coding time, carried with the work forever. A claim without its limits is not evidence.
Recorded limitations
- Survey responses and AI definitions are self-reported
- Reference periods and firm/function measures differ
- Performance relationships are cross-sectional associations
- Working paper
Source independence
Research paper using the US Census Bureau Business Trends and Outlook Survey; self-reported employer responses but not vendor product telemetry.