AIORG-W015 Working papers AI × management and organizations

Artificial Intelligence and the Modern Productivity Paradox: A Clash of Expectations and Statistics

Also recorded as: Brynjolfsson-Rock-Syverson productivity paradox · NBER w24001

working paper full text

Recorded claims
2
coded from the inspected source
Evidence classes
1
survey-or-synthesis
Recorded limitations
3
stated, never hidden

From the hash-bound evidence releases

Recorded claims

Each claim states what the inspected source says, at the recorded location—bounded by its scope and graded by its confidence. Nothing here is a synthesis across works.

The paper explains why general-purpose technologies can coexist with weak measured productivity during a period of complementary invention, process redesign, diffusion, and learning, producing a J-curve between investment and measured return.

confidence: medium-high as conceptual mechanism survey-or-synthesis apw-r0-seed

Scope: General-purpose AI and historical analogies as of 2017; mechanism boundary for current claims.

The productivity-paradox mechanism predicts that purchasing a technology without complementary organizational capital may yield little measured return during the transition, so tool adoption is not an adequate proxy for becoming AI-native.

confidence: medium survey-or-synthesis apw-r0-seed

Scope: Mechanism-level implication; it does not quantify a current firm's lag or guarantee later gains.

Structured relationships

In-corpus citations

Only source-supplied cites relationships whose two endpoints are admitted are shown. Invocation evidence remains a separate relationship.

Cites (0)

No in-corpus outgoing citation is available in the current enrichment coverage.

Cited by (0)

No in-corpus incoming citation is available in the current enrichment coverage.

Boundaries

Limitations & independence

Recorded at coding time, carried with the work forever. A claim without its limits is not evidence.

Recorded limitations

  • Published before modern generative AI
  • Conceptual/historical rather than a current field experiment
  • Macro measurement and lag mechanisms cannot identify one firm's outcome

Source independence

Academic economic synthesis predating current generative AI; not vendor evidence.