From the wave-0 evidence ledger
Recorded claims
Each claim states what the inspected source says, at the recorded location—bounded by its scope and graded by its confidence. Nothing here is a synthesis across works.
The task framework separates a displacement effect, in which automation moves tasks from labor to capital, from a reinstatement effect, in which new labor-intensive tasks are created; productivity growth can therefore coexist with lower labor demand or labor share.
Scope: General technological automation; boundary model for GenAI labor claims.
Creating new tasks in which labor retains comparative advantage is a distinct mechanism from merely automating existing tasks, so transition quality depends on task creation and allocation as well as aggregate productivity.
Scope: Conceptual and historical; no direct estimate for a current organization.
Boundaries
Limitations & independence
Recorded at coding time, carried with the work forever. A claim without its limits is not evidence.
Recorded limitations
- General automation rather than generative AI
- Macro/task framework does not prescribe a specific firm design
- Historical estimates may not transfer to current models
Source independence
Independent academic economic framework and evidence synthesis.