From the wave-0 evidence ledger
Recorded claims
Each claim states what the inspected source says, at the recorded location—bounded by its scope and graded by its confidence. Nothing here is a synthesis across works.
The report defines a three-stage progression from employees using AI assistants, to human-agent teams, to human-led organizations in which agents execute substantial processes; this is a vendor operating-model hypothesis rather than an empirically validated maturity law.
Scope: Prospective organizational progression as framed in the report.
The report describes a perceived capacity gap and growing manager expectations for AI-based digital labor, but those measures are self-report/forecast signals and do not demonstrate that agent-centered restructuring improves firm outcomes.
Scope: Surveyed knowledge workers/leaders and stated expectations in 2025.
Boundaries
Limitations & independence
Recorded at coding time, carried with the work forever. A claim without its limits is not evidence.
Recorded limitations
- Self-reported global survey and vendor telemetry
- Frontier Firm is a prospective/vendor label
- Forecasts are not realized firm outcomes
- Question wording and samples vary across report components
Source independence
Microsoft-sponsored survey, product telemetry, and forecast synthesis; vendor-defined construct.